And the winner is.....tactical votingI did not stay up for the result of the Gorton and Denton by-election on Thursday. Instead I woke up on Friday morning to learn of the Green Party's victory in the constituency. The good news is that Reform failed to take the constituency and this time it was not just a handful of votes in it. Labour's performance was an almost perfect match with local council by-elections. Labour are typically (more) |
Gorton and DentonIn his "Brexit Blog" last week Chris Grey referred to the "giggling fatuity of the BBC's political editor Chris Mason." There has been plenty of fatuity, by Mason and others, in the media's reporting of Thursday's by-election in part of Manchester and I suppose this post may only add to it. However, here goes.... To me the most striking part of the result is that the Conservatives received only 1.9% of the vote, and the Liberal Democrats even les, 1.8%. Who alive a hundred yeas ago (and there are still some) could have foreseen that these two great parties, led ... (more) |
How Charley fooled the Luftwaffe and saved Midland citiesHere's the blurb for one of the short Secret Leicestershire features on BBC Sounds - The secret RAF base which foiled the Nazis: Slightly north of Coalville in the Leicestershire district of Charley are the remains of a secret RAF base which foiled Nazi bombing raids during WW2. The RAF 80 Wing was formed in 1940 and comprised a team of specialist wireless operators who sent radio signal beams to throw German pilots off course, tricking them into releasing their bombs away from their intended targets. Charley was one of those specially chosen sites, being close to the important manufacturing ... (more) |
Latest voting intention and leadership ratings opinion pollsWelcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention polls for the next general election, along with the latest MRP projections and party leadership ratings. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email, The Week in Polls: General election voting intention polls PollsterConLabLDGrnRefLab leadFieldwork YouGov 18% (nc) 18% (-1) 14% (+1) 17% (nc) 24% (nc) -6% (vs Ref) 22-23/2 GB More in Common ... (more) |
Observations of an Expat: Shadow FleetRussia's shadow fleet of oil tankers is now believed to be over 1,000-strong. The ships are 20-25 years old. Putin has neither the time nor the money to build all the ships he needs. And he needs a lot because a major slice of Russia's oil exports are seaborne. International oil sales provide 20 percent of the government's revenues and the government is spending 40-60 percent of its revenues on the Ukraine War. The floating rust buckets in the shadow fleet are uninsurable and an environmental disaster waiting to happen. But Putin doesn't care about their seaworthiness. They are cheap ... (more) |
On the trail of Richard BurtonVisit Wales has a page from 2025 celebrating 100 years since the birth of one of Port Talbot's most famous sons. Richard Burton. This is particularly pertinent a year later, as I understand that Port Talbot will be bidding to be the 2028 Town of Culture, which will no doubt feature many of the highlighted landmarks. They say that in 2025, to mark the centenary of the great man's birth, the county of Neath Port Talbot curated two walking trails showcasing his old haunts, and two Blue Plaques were unveiled along the routes, one at Richard Burton's birthplace and the ... (more) |
Gorton and Denton: the state of British politicsThere's a plethora of hot takes about this week's by election out there. I'm going to throw my hat into the ring, hopefully with a few observations you won't see anywhere else. Gorton and Denton was hyped up as something historic - there are exceptional aspects to it - the first time since 1945 that neither Labour or Conservatives have finished in the first two in a by election, and the first ever win for the Greens. The result confirms what we've known for a while - two party politics is a thing of the past and we have a ... (more) |
ALDC by-election report, 26th FebruaryThis week, there was one principal council by-election down on the South Coast. With national attention staring north at the parliamentary by-election in Gorton and Denton, it offered a straightforward snapshot of how voters are moving locally. In Southampton, we were defending the seat and held on in a close finish, staying just ahead of Labour. While the margin tightened, the seat stayed in our hands. The Greens made a clear step forward and Reform UK registered a noticeable first outing, yet neither was enough to shift the overall picture. Congratulations are due to Councillor Chris Shank and the local ... (more) |
The Grifto-maticYou may already be aware of the grifting phenomenon known as Crypto Treasury Companies, described in the link as "businesses that hold substantial reserves of cryptocurrencies — most often Bitcoin — as core balance sheet assets." It appears to work this way. Suckers.Inc, who may or may not have had a real business going on, but certainly have a share price, issue equity and use the money raised to buy, say, Bitcoin. To all extents and purposes, they are just a pot of virtual money*. If the no-arbitrage condition held, there would be nothing of interest here. If a company ... (more) |
No Zack Polanski, the Gorton by-election does not "change everything!"In the 1970s David Steel told us to go back to our constituencies and prepare for Government! It has not quite happened yet. I wish Greens happiness today but do not think they should prepare for Government tomorrow! I have been an active Liberal and then Liberal Democrat politician for 59 years. In that time, I have seen repeated surges for my Party and projections of an imminent break through. I have been the organiser of a Parliamentary by-election in Ripon where we gained a seat from the Tories on the same day that we took the Isle of Ely ... (more) |