Latest voting intention and leadership ratings opinion pollsWelcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention polls for the next general election, along with the latest MRP projections and party leadership ratings. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email, The Week in Polls: General election voting intention polls PollsterConLabLDGrnRefLab leadFieldwork Find Out Now 20% (+2) 22% (-1) 11% (nc) 13% (-1) 25% (+2) -3% (vs Ref) 26/8 YouGov 20% ... (more) |
The Joy of Six 1568Tom Perry links to a review of the duty to report child sexual abuse brought in by the Crime and Policing Act 2026. It finds that because of the way the law is framed, this new duty will have little effect. Anand Kumar is part of the team writing the next edition of psychiatry's bible, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. This edition will, for the first time, attempt to draw on findings from neurobiology - a reminder of how little we currently know about the biology of mental health and neurodevelopment. "In Idaho, parents who say their ... (more) |
ALDC by-election report, 17th AugustFive principal authority by-elections took place across England on Thursday 27th August. Labour were defending two seats (in Wandsworth and Sheffield), Reform UK were defending two seats (in Newcastle and St Helens), and the Conservatives were defending one seat in Dover. The standout performance of the week for the Liberal Democrats came in Newcastle, where an extraordinary campaign saw us vault from 5th place all the way into a clear 2nd with a massive 24.3 percentage point surge in vote share. Elsewhere, Reform UK gained a seat from Labour in Sheffield while losing another to Labour in St Helens, and ... (more) |
Remember why we started: What the Hong Kong Alliance case means for Hong Kong's futureAs I write this, I am looking at my small model of the Goddess of Democracy (民主女神像) on the shelf. It takes me back to my student activist years in Hong Kong, when democracy was something my generation argued about, organised around and fought for. The original Goddess stood in Tiananmen Square for only a few days before it was destroyed in June 1989. Its image survived. In Hong Kong, one organisation kept that memory alive for more than three decades: the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China (支聯會). On 21 August 2026, the Hong ... (more) |
Sky Sports face down Pakistan authorities over Michael Atherton's interview with Imran Khan's sonsThe Pakistan Cricket Board threatened to tell its team not to take the field yesterday afternoon if Sky Sports screened a Michael Atherton interview with Imran Khan's two sons. Sky delayed the broadcast while conversations with the board took place, but to their credit eventually broadcast the 18-minute insert. In the interview, reports Cricinfo, Imran's sons Suleiman and Kasim Khan expressed concern about the health of their father, who has been in prison for three years, and said they feared for his life. (more) |
Lib Dems jump from 5th to 2nd in Newcastle contestFive principal authority council by-elections this week, and once again Labour and Reform traded gains with each other. The last few weeks have seen both the long run of consistent net gains for Reform come to an end and also the long run of consistent net losses for Labour come to an end. The variability of which seats are up week to week means drawing trends from by-elections should be done cautiously and over longer time periods. We do though seem to have come to a turning point in the electoral fortunes for both parties. There was also a dramatic ... (more) |
A very Russian conspiracyNation Cymru carries an extensive review of the new book by Luke Harding and its various revelations about former Wales UKIP leader. UKIP Welsh Assembly Member, Farage buddy and Reform UK leading light, Nathan Gill. In Betrayal: Trump, Putin and The New Age of Conquest, Harding, who has described Putin's Russia as a "Mafia state", suggests that Nathan Gill was part of a bigger pro-Russian network than has previously been reported. The website notes that Gill is serving a 10 and a half year sentence after being paid £40,000 by the pro-Russian Ukrainian diplomat, Oleh Voloshyn to ask questions in ... (more) |
Council by-election results scorecard 2026-2027Here's the tally of seats changing hands in principal authority council by-elections held between the May 2026 and the May 2027 local elections: Con Lab Lib Dem Green Reform SNP Plaid Ind/ Other Net Con [9] +1 (+1/0) +1 (+3/-2) -3 (0/-3) -4 (+3/-7) -1 (0/-1) – +2 (+3/-1) -4 Lab -1 (0/-1) [10] -1 (0/-1) -1 (+2/-3) -3 (+4/-7) – – 0 (+1/-1) -6 Lib Dem -1 (+2/-3) +1 (+1/0) [15] +1 (+1/0) +2 (+2/0) -1 (0/-1) – +1 (+1/0) +3 Grn +3 (+3/0) +1 (+3/-2) -1 (0/-1) [6] – – – – +3 Ref +4 (+7/-3) +3 (+7/-4) ... (more) |
Welsh Lib Dems: Burnham must back Wales with more than wordsResponding to Prime Minister Andy Burnham's comments in Port Talbot today, Welsh Liberal Democrat spokesperson David Chadwick MP said: Burnham says his visit to Port Talbot sends a powerful signal to the community, but he still hasn't actually committed to Wales receiving its fair share of the £2.5 billion steel fund, the single biggest decision that could benefit Port Talbot and the wider economy. Our priority is securing the powers that will make the biggest difference to people's everyday lives, from rail and infrastructure investment to research and development funding to the Crown Estate. Most fundamentally, Burnham is still refusing ... (more) |
Growing up at Foxton Locks around 1910Another video from Bob Trubshaw. He writes on YouTube: My maternal grandmother - known as a child as Dorothy Durran and in later life as Sarah Dallaston - spent her junior school years living at Bottom Lock Cottage at Foxton Locks. Her family were the lockkeepers at Foxton in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. I interviewed Sarah in 1988 and this video mostly uses these recordings. In 1991 I published edited transcripts of the interviews, along with family photographs, as a booklet called Around Foxton. In 2016 that booklet was revised and made available as a free PDF. ... (more) |