The national anthems at the Wales vs England rugby international in Cardiff today were preceded by a silence for the victims of the Llandow air disaster of 1950. The disaster involved a plane - an Avro Tudor - that had been chartered to take Welsh fans to and from the Five Nations game against Ireland, which was played at the Ravenhill Stadium in Belfast. The Avro crashed at Llandow aerodrome when attempting to land after its return flight. Eighty people died in the crash - 75 rugby fans and all 5 of the crew. At the time it was the ...

Posted by Jonathan Calder on Liberal England

A summary of the seat change predictions from Electoral Calculus for the big May rounds of local elections, based on opinion polling, updated now that the firm's predictions for May 2025 are out: Party Con Lab Lib Dem Green Reform 2025 Prediction -732 -56 +127 -3 +697 2023 – First prediction -258 +408 -39 -35 – Final prediction -338 +395 +14 -7 -11 Results -1,060 +536 +407 +241 -4 2022 Prediction -548 +819 +49 -26 – Results -485 +108 +224 +87 – 2021 Prediction +339 +280 -97 -8 -8 Results +234 -326 +8 +88 -9 Note: in 2021 Reform gained ...

Posted by Mark Pack on Mark Pack

New polling from YouGov shows that Reform voters are statistically tied on whether their party would be better or worse off with a different leader from Nigel Farage: [IMG: YouGov polling on Nigel Farage leadership] Such questions tend to slightly favour the unnamed hypothetical alternative as people can imagine them as their theoretical ideal. Even so, it is striking how low the positive support is for Nigel Farage among Reform voters. Get the best of polling summarised, weekly Sign up here if you would like to receive The Week in Polls, a weekly round-up and analysis of the latest British ...

Posted by Mark Pack on Mark Pack

Hear me out. I know that title sounds daft, but I have thought about this often. We often remember something in the distant past and then think "that seems like only yesterday". I wonder if our recent memories – with their detail and sometimes crashing boredom – are like the first four telegraph poles, from the left, above. In the recent past, we remember all the wires in between all the events – all the mundane drudgery in between the highlight events. In the distant past all we can see (on the right hand side of the photo) is the ...

Posted by paulwalternewbury on Liberal Burblings

I was fortunate enough to watch "A Complete Unknown" last night. It's the story of the young Bob Dylan arriving with just a guitar in New York City until his controversial appearance at the Newport Folk Festival in 1965, when he "broke folk" by using an electric guitar. The film is based on the book "Dylan Goes Electric!" written by Elijah Wald. It's a sensational work. Even if you don't know many of Dylan's songs, the screenplay is captivating. There's the on-off love-hate relationship between Dylan and Joan Baez, underscored by his relationship with Suze Rotolo. There's his friendship and ...

Posted by paulwalternewbury on Liberal Burblings

I suspect I am not alone in having zero chance of ever being on Desert Island Discs. I still often find myself fantasising about what I would choose to take with me, if I was on that lovely show. Anyway, the book I would choose would be "Handful of Dust" by Evelyn Waugh. I studied it a school and developed a soft spot for it. It is hilarious really – but not in a "ha ha"/laugh-out-loud way (not like PG Wodehouse's works) but it involves such an exquisite slow car crash of a life – the main character goes from ...

Posted by paulwalternewbury on Liberal Burblings

There's not much doubt about our Headline of the Day. Well done to the Guardian.

Posted by Jonathan Calder on Liberal England

It's all about timing, and in my case the time may have arrived for an idea that I first mooted 25 years ago. In 2018 it was shortlisted for a prize in honour of the late Paddy Ashdown. It if won first prize the idea might have progressed. But instead it has sat on my computer hard drive waiting for the right moment to be pulled out. The idea concerns foreign aid. Trump has slashed US aid by 80 percent, Britain by 40 percent, France by a third and Germany and Japan by a to-be-announced amount. On top of that, ...

Posted by Tom Arms on Liberal Democrat Voice

Welcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention polls for the next general election, along with party leadership ratings. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email, The Week in Polls: General election voting intention polls PollsterConLabLDGrnRefLab leadFieldwork Techne 22% (+1) 27% (-1) 14% (+1) 7% (nc) 24% (-1) +3% (vs Ref) 12-13/3 GB Find Out Now 21% (nc) 24% (-1) 11% ...

Posted by Mark Pack on Mark Pack

From Dundee Civic Trust : Dundee, forever on the edge in both location and spirit, is faced with an immediate threat - climate breakdown. What lies ahead when our famed river rises? How will we meet the multi-challenge of increased storms, floods and droughts with extreme temperature swings in our neighbourhoods? What are the ways forward? Dundee Civic Trust and a panel of experts invite you to an afternoon discussion, on 22nd March in the V&A Dundee, to explore and question the roles that design, business, science and education play in a community's resilience. Please follow this link to book ...

Posted by Bailie Fraser Macpherson & Cllr Michael Crichton on Councillors Fraser Macpherson & Michael Crichton - working for the West End
YouGov

It is rather telling that one of the endorsements of Keir Starmer's decision to abolish NHS England is shadow Tory justice secretary, Robert Jenrick. According to the Daily Telegraph, Jenrick has admitted that the Tories "probably" should have abolished NHS England while they were in power. However, the initial estimate of 10,000 job losses as a result of Labour's decision now looks to be an underestimate. The Guardian reports that the jobs cull from the government's radical restructuring of the NHS will be at least twice as big as previously thought, with other parts of the health service now being ...

Posted by Peter Black on Peter Black